Risk Assessment Studies Research Articles

Determination of Element Concentration of Brewed Tea Consumed in Iran Using ICP-OES: A Risk Assessment Study.

Tea is a popular drink enjoyed by many people around the world. However, it is important to note that impurities and contaminants in tea can potentially threaten human health when consumed. The main objective of this research is to assess the concentration of 16 trace elements (As, Fe, Al, Co, B, Li, Cd, Ba, Pb, Cr, Zn, Hg, Ni, Mn, Sb, and Sn) present in different types brewed of tea by using the ICP-OES (the inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer) device, and the human health risks related to its use were evaluated. In this study, manganese (Mn) indicated the highest mean concentration in black (917.64µg/kg) and green tea (912.89µg/kg), respectively. Our study showed that the highest mean concentration of element boron (B) was (44.36µg/kg) in Stachys lavandulifolia brewed tea. Among different packaging, tea bag samples had the highest concentration of Mn (1025.65µg/kg) and aluminum (Al) (396.63µg/kg). However, those unpacked posed the lowest content of Mn (188.13µg/kg) and Al (100.47µg/kg). The lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and cadmium (Cd) concentrations in all samples were lower than the maximum limit of the Iranian standard and the WHO. In general, the amount of tea metal in Iranian samples was higher than in imported samples. Also, increasing the brewing time (10 min) can be effective in the solubility and extraction of metals such as B, Hg, cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and lithium (Li). Further, the correlation between the amount of metals and type in tea samples was evaluated with principal component analysis. Based on the conducted non-carcinogenic risk assessment by the Monte Carlo simulation, the hazard index (HI), due to ingestion of heavy metals via tea in the 5-min brewing of tea, was 7.39E - 03 and 2.09E - 03, and in the 10-min brewing of tea, it was 3.20E - 02 and 9.07E - 03 for children and adults, respectively. Therefore, there was no significant non-carcinogenic risk from tea consumption.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a polyherbal drug: human health exposure-associated risk assessment study

ABSTRACT PAHs are pervasive pollutants known to bioaccumulate in environmental matrices, plants, and humans. Dr. Iguedo Goko Cleanser® is a polyherbal drug with unsubstantiated claims to treat various diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. PAHs were measured following EPA-16 PAHs guidelines using Gas Chromatography (Agilent-6890N, USA). The drug’s exposure-associated public health concerns was determined using suitable mathematical paradigms. PAHs present were acenaphthene (2.74 × 10−2), pyrene (2.7598 × 10−2), and chrysene (5.1277 × 10−2) ppm. Dietary intake of chrysene, acenaphthene and pyrene for adults, and children ranged from 2.466–4.615 × 10−3 and 1.215–2.308 × 10−3 ppm/mg/kg, respectively. B[α]Peq, EDB[α]Peq, and incremental lifetime cancer risk were determined to be 5.6777 × 10−4, 5.109912 × 10−5 and 5.3289 × 10−12, respectively. Our results suggest a high risk of non-carcinogenic adverse health effects, especially on chronic exposure among adolescents and adults, necessitating caution and/or avoidance of its chronic use. Therefore, policy formulation and implementation as regards the safety of plant-based remedies and allied products before their distribution among end-users must be ensured.

Pharmacodynamic monitoring by residual gene expression of the nuclear factor of activated T cell-regulated genes in lung transplant recipients and its correlation with tacrolimus blood levels

IntroductionTrough blood levels (C0) of tacrolimus are used to adjust drug dosage, but they do not consistently correlate with clinical outcomes. Measurement of residual gene expression of nuclear factor of activated T cell (NFAT)-regulated genes (NFAT-RGE) has been proposed as a pharmacodynamic biomarker to assess the degree of immunosuppression in certain solid organ transplantations, but little is known regarding lung transplant recipients (LTR). Our primary objective is to correlate tacrolimus blood levels with NFAT-RGE.MethodsNFAT-RGE and tacrolimus C0 and peak (C1.5) levels were determined in 42 patients at three, six and 12 months post-transplantation.ResultsTacrolimus C0 did not exhibit a correlation with NFAT-RGE, whereas C1.5 did. Besides, over 20% of measurements indicated high levels of immunosuppression based on the below 30% NFAT-RGE threshold observed in many studies. Among those measurements within the therapeutic range, 19% had an NFAT-RGE<30%.ConclusionConsequently, a subset of patients within the tacrolimus therapeutic range may be more susceptible to infection or cancer, potentially benefiting from NFAT-RGE and tacrolimus peak level monitoring to tailor their dosage. Further quantitative risk assessment studies are needed to elucidate the relationship between NFAT-RGE and the risk of infection, cancer, or rejection.

Construction of landscape eco-geological risk assessment framework in coal mining area using multi-source remote sensing data

High-intensity and large-scale mining activities have aggravated regional eco-geological risk. Therefore, it is significantly essential to conduct an assessment of the eco-geological risk of mining areas. Although some progress has been achieved in ecological risk assessment studies, existing approaches are not entirely suitable for coal bases with high landscape fragmentation and dense coal mining activities. Here, we developed a novel landscape ecological and geological risk (LEGR) assessment framework based on theories that include landscape ecological risk and eco-geological risk. The framework selected 10 indicators, including slope, fluctuation, lithological hardness, soil type, FVC, RSEI, precipitation, biological abundance, distance to road and subsidence rate, and calculated the weights of indicators by introducing the AHP-CRITIC coupled weighting model. Then, the impact of landscape disturbances on eco-geological risk is quantified by measuring landscape losses. This framework was applied to the Shenfu mining area (SFMA), a typical coal base in northwest China. The results indicated the LEGR was moderate in the SFMA whose spatial distribution exhibited an increasing trend from southwest to northeast. Besides, the high LEGR was mainly in the aggregated mining area with high subsidence. For the eco-geological environment monitoring at the mine scale, a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was utilized for analyzing the relationship between indicators and LEGR within the disturbed range of coal mining. It provided valuable insights for the formulation of environmental protection policies in the mining area.

Pharmacokinetic and Environmental Risk Assessment of Prime-2-CoV, a Non-Replicating Orf Virus-Based Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2

Viral vector vaccines represent a substantial advancement in immunization technology, offering numerous benefits over traditional vaccine modalities. The Orf virus (ORFV) strain D1701-VrV is a particularly promising candidate for vaccine development due to its distinctive attributes, such as a good safety profile, the ability to elicit both humoral and cellular immunity, and its favorable genetic and thermal stability. Despite ORFV’s theoretical safety advantages, such as its narrow host range and limited systemic spread post-inoculation, a critical gap persists between these theoretical benefits and the empirical evidence regarding its in vivo safety profile. This discrepancy underscores the need for comprehensive preclinical validations to bridge this knowledge gap, especially considering ORFV’s use in humans. Our research introduces Prime-2-CoV, an innovative ORFV-based vaccine candidate against COVID-19, designed to elicit a robust immune response by expressing SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid and Spike proteins. Currently under clinical trials, Prime-2-CoV marks the inaugural application of ORFV in human subjects. Addressing the aforementioned safety concerns, our extensive preclinical evaluation, including an environmental risk assessment (ERA) and detailed pharmacokinetic studies in rats and immunocompromised NOG mice, demonstrates Prime-2-CoV’s favorable pharmacokinetic profile, negligible environmental impact, and minimal ERA risks. These findings not only affirm the vaccine’s safety and efficacy but also pioneer the use of ORFV-based therapeutics, highlighting its potential for wider therapeutic applications.

Does intraspecific variation in Trissolcus japonicus affect its response to non-target hosts?

AbstractHost specificity is a key criterion for the implementation of any biological control program. In parasitoid wasps, host specificity is mediated by their response to chemical cues directly and indirectly associated with their hosts during foraging. Although intraspecific variation in foraging behaviour is documented, it is rarely integrated into risk assessment studies of potential biological control agents, as is the case for Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae), an Asian egg parasitoid and biological control agent of the invasive Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). In the present study, we compared the behavioural response of T. japonicus females of an adventive line present in Switzerland and an Asian line (Beijing USDA), recently mass released in Italy, to cues of its target host H. halys and non-target host Pentatoma rufipes (L.) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). We observed minimal differences in host acceptance, exploitation and suitability in no-choice tests. In contrast, the behavioural response to host contact kairomones left on leaf substrates significantly differed between the two lines. While both lines preferred chemical footprints of H. halys in comparison to P. rufipes, females of the Beijing USDA line responded more strongly to host kairomones. The observed intraspecific variation in behavioural traits highlights the relevance of considering genetically distinct parasitoid lines and their host foraging behaviour in biological risk assessment studies. However, the implications of intraspecific variation in parasitoid foraging behaviour for biological control of a pest and non-target effects in the field remain challenging to predict.

Developmental toxicity and potential mechanisms exposed to polystyrene microplastics and polybrominated diphenyl ethers during early life stages of fat greenling (Hexagrammos otakii)

The occurrence of microplastics (MPs) in aquatic ecosystems and their ability to absorb hydrophobic pollutants, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), is currently a significant concern. MPs, which are the main breakdown product of plastics, have been frequently detected in the environment, posing serious threats to organisms’ health. One particular pollutant, 2,2′,4,4′-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-47), is a dominant congener of PBDEs and is highly toxic to organisms. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the exposure of marine fishes to PBDEs through MPs and their combined toxic effects. In this study, the embryo toxicity of Hexagrammos otakii was conducted to investigate the combined effects of MPs and BDE-47. The results showed that MPs and BDE-47 co-exposure had detrimental effects on embryonic development, such as reduced hatchability, increased mortality, decreased heart rate, and body malformation. Moreover, the combined toxicity of these substances appeared more pronounced harmful effects compared to exposure to BDE-47 alone. Histopathological examination revealed that co-exposure can cause greater damage to hatching glands and yolk. The enrichment of Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways included phagosome, metabolism of xenobiotics by cytochrome P450, TCA cycle, and Wnt signaling pathway, which are closely related to embryonic growth. BDE-47 and MPs may activate the Wnt signaling pathway to affect the normal development of embryos. Our results suggest that MPs and BDE-47 exposure may cause growth disorders in the early life stages of H.otakii, leading to abnormal embryonic development. All these results will contribute to the further study of the ecological risk assessment and toxicity of MPs and organic pollutant mixtures in marine fish.

Respiratory and other hazard characteristics of substances in cleaning products used in healthcare centres in England and Wales.

Occupational use of cleaning products can cause asthma in healthcare workers but the cleaning agents responsible are not yet known. This study aimed to identify respiratory and other hazards in cleaning products on the National Health Service (NHS) supply chain online catalogue and used in the NHS. Information on cleaning products, their composition and H-statements that identified hazard characteristics of chemical substances in them was obtained from chemical safety data sheets (SDSs). Furthermore, a quantitative structure-activity relationship model and a published asthmagen list was used to identify potential additional respiratory hazards. 473 cleaning products and 229 substances were identified. SDSs reported only 4 respiratory sensitisers but an additional 51 were suggested by the other 2 methods. In contrast, 25 respiratory irritants were identified using SDSs and only one from the asthmagen list. This comprehensive overview of cleaning agents' hazards has potential use in future risk assessment and epidemiological studies.

Opportunistic Pathogens in Drinking Water Distribution Systems—A Review

In contrast to “frank” pathogens, like Salmonella entrocolitica, Shigella dysenteriae, and Vibrio cholerae, that always have a probability of disease, “opportunistic” pathogens are organisms that cause an infectious disease in a host with a weakened immune system and rarely in a healthy host. Historically, drinking water treatment has focused on control of frank pathogens, particularly those from human or animal sources (like Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium parvum, or Hepatitis A virus), but in recent years outbreaks from drinking water have increasingly been due to opportunistic pathogens. Characteristics of opportunistic pathogens that make them problematic for water treatment include: (1) they are normally present in aquatic environments, (2) they grow in biofilms that protect the bacteria from disinfectants, and (3) under appropriate conditions in drinking water systems (e.g., warm water, stagnation, low disinfectant levels, etc.), these bacteria can amplify to levels that can pose a public health risk. The three most common opportunistic pathogens in drinking water systems are Legionella pneumophila, Mycobacterium avium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This report focuses on these organisms to provide information on their public health risk, occurrence in drinking water systems, susceptibility to various disinfectants, and other operational practices (like flushing and cleaning of pipes and storage tanks). In addition, information is provided on a group of nine other opportunistic pathogens that are less commonly found in drinking water systems, including Aeromonas hydrophila, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens, Burkholderia pseudomallei, Acinetobacter baumannii, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Arcobacter butzleri, and several free-living amoebae including Naegleria fowleri and species of Acanthamoeba. The public health risk for these microbes in drinking water is still unclear, but in most cases, efforts to manage Legionella, mycobacteria, and Pseudomonas risks will also be effective for these other opportunistic pathogens. The approach to managing opportunistic pathogens in drinking water supplies focuses on controlling the growth of these organisms. Many of these microbes are normal inhabitants in biofilms in water, so the attention is less on eliminating these organisms from entering the system and more on managing their occurrence and concentrations in the pipe network. With anticipated warming trends associated with climate change, the factors that drive the growth of opportunistic pathogens in drinking water systems will likely increase. It is important, therefore, to evaluate treatment barriers and management activities for control of opportunistic pathogen risks. Controls for primary treatment, particularly for turbidity management and disinfection, should be reviewed to ensure adequacy for opportunistic pathogen control. However, the major focus for the utility’s opportunistic pathogen risk reduction plan is the management of biological activity and biofilms in the distribution system. Factors that influence the growth of microbes (primarily in biofilms) in the distribution system include, temperature, disinfectant type and concentration, nutrient levels (measured as AOC or BDOC), stagnation, flushing of pipes and cleaning of storage tank sediments, and corrosion control. Pressure management and distribution system integrity are also important to the microbial quality of water but are related more to the intrusion of contaminants into the distribution system rather than directly related to microbial growth. Summarizing the identified risk from drinking water, the availability and quality of disinfection data for treatment, and guidelines or standards for control showed that adequate information is best available for management of L. pneumophila. For L. pneumophila, the risk for this organism has been clearly established from drinking water, cases have increased worldwide, and it is one of the most identified causes of drinking water outbreaks. Water management best practices (e.g., maintenance of a disinfectant residual throughout the distribution system, flushing and cleaning of sediments in pipelines and storage tanks, among others) have been shown to be effective for control of L. pneumophila in water supplies. In addition, there are well documented management guidelines available for the control of the organism in drinking water distribution systems. By comparison, management of risks for Mycobacteria from water are less clear than for L. pneumophila. Treatment of M. avium is difficult due to its resistance to disinfection, the tendency to form clumps, and attachment to surfaces in biofilms. Additionally, there are no guidelines for management of M. avium in drinking water, and one risk assessment study suggested a low risk of infection. The role of tap water in the transmission of the other opportunistic pathogens is less clear and, in many cases, actions to manage L. pneumophila (e.g., maintenance of a disinfectant residual, flushing, cleaning of storage tanks, etc.) will also be beneficial in helping to manage these organisms as well.

Identifying and preventing human error in the sugar production process: A multi-stage approach using HTA, HEC and PHEA techniques

This article discusses the importance of identifying and preventing human error in industrial environments, specifically in the sugar production process. The article emphasizes the importance of choosing the right technique for risk assessment studies resulting from human errors. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a multi-stage approach – Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA), Human Error Calculator (HEC), and Predictive Human Error Analysis (PHEA) – to identify potential human errors in the sugar production process. The HTA, HEC, and PHEA techniques were employed to evaluate each stage of the process for potential human errors. The results of the HTA technique identified 35 tasks and 83 sub-tasks in 14 units of the sugar production process. According to HEC technique 4 tasks with 80 % probability of human error and 2 tasks with 50 % probability of human error had the highest calculated error probabilities. The factors of individual skill, task repetition and importance were the most important factors of human error in the present study. The analysis of PHEA worksheets showed that the number of human errors identified in the tasks with highest probability were 8 errors, of which 50 % were action errors, 25 % checking errors, 13 % selection errors, and 12 % retrieval errors. To mitigate the consequences of human error, it was recommended training courses, raising operator awareness of error consequences, and installing instructions in the sugar production process. Based on the findings, the article concludes that the HEC and PHEA techniques are applicable and effective in identifying and analyzing human errors in process and food industries.

Joint EURADOS-EANM initiative for an advanced computational framework for the assessment of external dose rates from nuclear medicine patients

Abstract Background In order to ensure adequate radiation protection of critical groups such as staff, caregivers and the general public coming into proximity of nuclear medicine (NM) patients, it is necessary to consider the impact of the radiation emitted by the patients during their stay at the hospital or after leaving the hospital. Current risk assessments are based on ambient dose rate measurements in a single position at a specified distance from the patient and carried out at several time points after administration of the radiopharmaceutical to estimate the whole-body retention. The limitations of such an approach are addressed in this study by developing and validating a more advanced computational dosimetry approach using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in combination with flexible and realistic computational phantoms and time activity distribution curves from reference biokinetic models. Results Measurements of the ambient dose rate equivalent Ḣ*(10) at 1 m from the NM patient have been successfully compared against MC simulations with 5 different codes using the ICRP adult reference computational voxel phantoms, for typical clinical procedures with 99mTc-HDP/MDP, 18FDG and Na131I. All measurement data fall in the 95% confidence intervals, determined for the average simulated results. Moreover, the different MC codes (MCNP-X, PHITS, GATE, GEANT4, TRIPOLI-4®) have been compared for a more realistic scenario where the effective dose rate Ė of an exposed individual was determined in positions facing and aside the patient model at 30 cm, 50 cm and 100 cm. The variation between codes was lower than 8% for all the radiopharmaceuticals at 1 m, and varied from 5 to 16% for the face-to face and side-by-side configuration at 30 cm and 50 cm. A sensitivity study on the influence of patient model morphology demonstrated that the relative standard deviation of Ḣ*(10) at 1 m for the range of included patient models remained under 16% for time points up to 120 min post administration. Conclusions The validated computational approach will be further used for the evaluation of effective dose rates per unit administered activity for a variety of close-contact configurations and a range of radiopharmaceuticals as part of risk assessment studies. Together with the choice of appropriate dose constraints this would facilitate the setting of release criteria and patient restrictions.

Capacity curves for monitored existing buildings and within- and between-building variability of secant stiffness

AbstractIn this study, accelerometric data from seven Japanese buildings under long-term monitoring were analysed to explore the variability of the buildings’ co-seismic response over time and its within- and between-building components, using co-seismic capacity curves developed in acceleration-displacement-response-spectrum format. The data include the 2011 Tohoku Mw9.1 earthquake, which caused building damage of different levels of severity, and the time-varying actual capacity curves were analysed considering earthquakes before and after 2011. Result showed that the initial slope of the capacity curves reflects the amount of damage. The between-building and within-building components of the variability are discussed by comparing a single building and several buildings in the same class for several earthquakes. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty of seismic risk assessment studies is discussed in relation to the selection of a generic capacity model for all buildings in a single class.

Tracing the land use specific impacts on groundwater quality: a chemometric, information entropy WQI and health risk assessment study.

Understanding the nexus of land use and water quality can potentially underline the influences within the groundwater management. The study envisages land use-specific qualitative assessment of the groundwater resources in Ghaziabad district, in western Uttar Pradesh, India. For encountering the relative impacts of land use on the groundwater quality, chemometric analysis has been employed to apportion the pollution sources. The integration of quality parameters, in the information entropy index modeling, has segregated the quality classes and visualized the seasonal suitability trends as per potability standards along with non-carcinogenic health hazard risk assessment (HHRA). The qualitative assessment of the groundwater resources, along with spatial distribution, has deciphered a polluting impact, specifically in western and south western parts of district, and observed the linkages with direct and indirect discharges/seepages from densely populated residential and industrial land use types localized in urbanized areas. Statistically significant annual and seasonal variations have been found exclusively for EC, Mg2+, F-, Cd, Cr(total), Ni, and Pb which inferred variable concentrations, whereas land use types showed a non-significant variation within groundwater quality. Chemometric-based source apportioning and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) have derived salinization and enrichment of dissolved salts, arising from mixed sources and contributes to metal pollution, i.e., mainly from anthropogenic sources. Information EWQI derived poor to extremely poor category represented degraded potability specifically for fewer sites located within western and southern parts on the Yamuna-Hindon flood plains for limited sites of residential, industrial, and agricultural in an urbanized region. However, majority of the samples fall under excellent to good groundwater quality, recommendable in the north and north-eastern (peri-urban) regions. Non-carcinogenic HHRA has shown that majority of the samples categorized under unsafe value for hazard index (HI > 1), for females and children and thus, presumed probable health hazard risk from metal groundwater pollution in south-western part, eastern, and northern regions.

Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) in Bottled Water (Mineral and Drinking) Distributed in Different Seasons in Tehran, Iran: A Health Risk Assessment Study

Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) in Bottled Water (Mineral and Drinking) Distributed in Different Seasons in Tehran, Iran: A Health Risk Assessment Study

Microplastic pollution in the Chapora River, Goa, Southwest India: spatial distribution and risk assessment.

The amount of information available on the microplastic (MP) contamination in Goa's riverine water systems is currently limited. The abundance, size, colour, and polymer composition of microplastics in Chapora River surface water were investigated in this study. MPs in Chapora River surface water ranged from 0.1 particles/L (station 13) to 0.47 particles/L (station 5). The mean (± standard deviation) MP concentration was 0.25 (± 0.13) particles/L. Fibre was the dominant shape (77.15%), followed by fragments (12.36%), films (9.36%), and foam (1.12%). Most MPs were found in the 0.1-0.3mm size range, then in the 0.3-1mm and 1-5mm. The dominant type of polymer studied was polyethylene terephthalate (PET; 46%), followed by high-density polyethylene (HDPE; 14%), polypropylene (PP; 5%), and polystyrene (PS; 1%). The risk assessment study indicated high risk with respect to PHI, while PLI shows low risk in the area. The source of MPs was mostly anthropogenic in nature in the region. When compared with other tropical rivers, MP pollution was relatively lower in the Chapora River. Nevertheless, the baseline data will help the local administration take mitigation measures to reduce the impact of MP pollution in the region.

Evaluation of in silico model predictions for mammalian acute oral toxicity and regulatory application in pesticide hazard and risk assessment

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) uses the lethal dose 50% (LD50) value from in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies for pesticide product label precautionary statements and environmental risk assessment (RA). The Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS) is a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR)-based in silico approach to predict rat acute oral toxicity that has the potential to reduce animal use when registering a new pesticide technical grade active ingredient (TGAI). This analysis compared LD50 values predicted by CATMoS to empirical values from in vivo studies for the TGAIs of 177 conventional pesticides. The accuracy and reliability of the model predictions were assessed relative to the empirical data in terms of USEPA acute oral toxicity categories and discrete LD50 values for each chemical. CATMoS was most reliable at placing pesticide TGAIs in acute toxicity categories III (>500–5000 mg/kg) and IV (>5000 mg/kg), with 88% categorical concordance for 165 chemicals with empirical in vivo LD50 values ≥ 500 mg/kg. When considering an LD50 for RA, CATMoS predictions of 2000 mg/kg and higher were found to agree with empirical values from limit tests (i.e., single, high-dose tests) or definitive results over 2000 mg/kg with few exceptions.

Risk assessment and natural attenuation study of groundwater contamination in an oil reservoir in Fuxin

Risk assessment and natural attenuation study of groundwater contamination in an oil reservoir in Fuxin

Reference prior for Bayesian estimation of seismic fragility curves

One of the key elements of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the conditional probability of failure of a mechanical structure for a given scalar measure derived from seismic ground motion. For many structures of interest, estimating these curves is a daunting task because of the limited amount of data available; data which is only binary in our framework, i.e., only describing the structure as being in a failure or non-failure state. A large number of methods described in the literature tackle this challenging framework through parametric log-normal models. Bayesian approaches, on the other hand, allow model parameters to be learned more efficiently. However, the impact of the choice of the prior distribution on the posterior distribution cannot be readily neglected and, consequently, neither can its impact on any resulting estimation. This paper proposes a comprehensive study of this parametric Bayesian estimation problem for limited and binary data. Using the reference prior theory as a cornerstone, this study develops an objective approach to choosing the prior. This approach leads to the Jeffreys prior, which is derived for this problem for the first time. The posterior distribution is proven to be proper (i.e., it integrates to unity) with the Jeffreys prior but improper with some traditional priors found in the literature. With the Jeffreys prior, the posterior distribution is also shown to vanish at the boundaries of the parameters’ domain, which means that sampling the posterior distribution of the parameters does not result in anomalously small or large values. Therefore, the use of the Jeffreys prior does not result in degenerate fragility curves such as unit-step functions, and leads to more robust credibility intervals. The numerical results obtained from two different case studies—including an industrial example—illustrate the theoretical predictions.

The ARIMA model approach for the biofilm-forming capacity prediction of Listeria monocytogenes recovered from carcasses

The present study aimed to predict the biofilm-formation ability of L. monocytogenes isolates obtained from cattle carcasses via the ARIMA model at different temperature parameters. The identification of L. monocytogenes obtained from carcass samples collected from slaughterhouses was determined by PCR. The biofilm-forming abilities of isolates were phenotypically determined by calculating the OD value and categorizing the ability via the microplate test. The presence of some virulence genes related to biofilm was revealed by QPCR to support the biofilm profile genotypically. Biofilm-formation of the isolates was evaluated at different temperature parameters (37 °C, 22 °C, 4 °C and − 20 °C). Estimated OD values were obtained with the ARIMA model by dividing them into eight different estimation groups. The prediction performance was determined by performance measurement metrics (ME, MAE, MSE, RMSE, MPE and MAPE). One week of incubation showed all isolates strongly formed biofilm at all controlled temperatures except − 20 °C. In terms of the metrics examined, the 3 days to 7 days forecast group has a reasonable prediction accuracy based on OD values occurring at 37 °C, 22 °C, and 4 °C. It was concluded that measurements at 22 °C had lower prediction accuracy compared to predictions from other temperatures. Overall, the best OD prediction accuracy belonged to the data obtained from biofilm formation at -20 °C. For all temperatures studied, especially after the 3 days to 7 days forecast group, there was a significant decrease in the error metrics and the forecast accuracy increased. When evaluating the best prediction group, the lowest RMSE at 37 °C (0.055), 22 °C (0.027) and 4 °C (0.024) belonged to the 15 days to 21 days group. For the OD predictions obtained at -20 °C, the 15 days to 21 days prediction group had also good performance (0.011) and the lowest RMSE belongs to the 7 days to 15 days group (0.007). In conclusion, this study will guide in using indicator parameters to evaluate biofilm forming ability to predict optimum temperature-time. The ARIMA models integrated with this study can be useful tools for industrial application and risk assessment studies using different parameters such as pH, NaCl concentration, and especially temperature applied during food processing and storage on the biofilm-formation ability of L. monocytogenes.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Pathogens in Raccoon Dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and Raccoons (Procyon lotor) from Schleswig-Holstein, Germany.

Raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and raccoons (Procyon lotor) are invasive alien species originating from East Asia and North America, respectively. They are discussed as vectors and reservoirs for various infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic pathogens, and are therefore a potential threat to human and domestic animal health, as well as to biodiversity and conservation. In the years 2021 and 2022, 110 raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and 30 raccoons (Procyon lotor) were screened via qPCR for the presence of Leptospira spp., Rickettsia spp. and Borreliella spp. in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein as part of a health and risk assessment study. Borreliella spp. were confirmed in one raccoon dog and one raccoon, identified as Borreliella afzelii in the raccoon. Leptospira spp. were found in 21 (19.44%) raccoon dogs and 2 (6.90%) raccoons. In five raccoon dogs, Leptospira spp. were identified as Leptospira borgpetersenii, Leptospira kirschneri and Leptospira interrogans.